Tunisia Rethink

Well the results are in, and the Islamists have got a whopping 40% of the vote. I proceeded to go down the list of runners-up to see which party was actually decent and that I would support. Most of them were actually leftists, and there were none I really wanted to see.

Whereas the Islamist party supports the free market, and doesn't support any typical radical Islamic policies like banning bikinis. They seem to be moderate Muslims, and would seem to be a Muslim version of the US Republican party (ie the religious people vote for them). And according to this "Ask people here why they vote for the Islamists and they don't talk about religion".

So all-in-all, it seems like we have a fantastic success story. The Arab Muslims have managed to produce a decent democracy. One way or another, this result can be reproduced across the rest of the region (think - Saudi Arabia). The Muslims are not fundamentally ideological challengers to the West. That's the real danger to long-term prospects for world freedom and world peace - whether we have any ideological challengers to liberal democracy. With Taiwan covering the Chinese angle, Tunisia covering the Arab Muslim angle, and some semi-functioning African democracies, it looks like we have the Ultimate Ideology at hand - liberal democracy. It may not be Utopia, but it's a damn site better than whatever comes second.

So the prospects for the future look good, although there are still wars to be fought to get there. Winnable wars, because we're armed with an ideology that requires no resources to maintain. Democracies are self-maintaining.




Liberated Libya

Well it is wonderful news that Libya is now liberated.

There is a chance that this freedom is only temporary though, like so many other changes of power in the Middle East. But I think the circumstances are different now, and we will see a smooth transition to democracy.

Regardless, freedom is so precious that we shouldn't take any chances. The existing militias should pledge loyalty to democracy and receive professional training. The more people who get trained the better, as democracy is after all, all about majority rule - so at some level the majority is expected to be able to defeat the minority in battle. So if the elections don't go the way some of the militias would have preferred, the majority needs to force the issue with guns. It would be beneficial to have NATO standing by ready to support the majority to make the task easier, but that's an unlikely luxury.

Once again Libya is making disturbing noises about being an Islamic state, but I have heard figures that 90% of Libyans are moderate Muslims, 5% are radical Islamists and 5% are radical leftists. So let's hope the majority get their vote.




Tunisian Knife Edge

In a case of very strange bedfellows, both Al Qaeda and myself supported the Arab Spring. The Al Qaeda types have some strange line that Israel or the Americans were propping up the Arab dictators in order to protect Israel and now the people are free so they can get an Islamic state and an end to the horrible zionist regimes.

Whereas I am expecting the Tunisians and Libyans to vote for a moderate government much like Iraq has. Probably even better than Iraq. I think it's more likely that they will join NATO than be part of some sort of Islamic Caliphate.

So again we have a clash of paradigms. Both Al Qaeda and myself are using our respective paradigms to predict the future. If and when Al Qaeda's prediction fails to eventuate, they'll likely add some more conspiracy into the mix, and say that the zionists managed to rig the Tunisian elections after all. If my prediction fails to eventuate, I'll simply say that I gave the Tunisian people too much credit, and pencil them in below Iraq instead of above Iraq. And after all - one of the reasons Iraq was the ideal choice to start with was the fact that they were supposedly the least radical of the lot. Part of the data-gathering phase in world liberation is to be able to accurately categorize these countries so that we know where and when to apply force (or whatever) so that we can direct events to where we would like them to go. Actually this is something I do as an individual too. Mainly I did it with computer software, but I also did it with the ideological war too - inserting my logic skills to win the political debate. And similar to how the US funded capitalist insurgents during the Cold War, I funded things like the Iraqi bloggers.

Anyway, my current understanding is that the opinion polls only show the Islamists getting 20% of the vote, so assuming that opinion polls in Tunisia are an accurate reflection of the secret ballot, there shouldn't be a problem. And even if they get more than 20%, my understanding is that they are moderate anyway. So at this stage things look like they are going my way and I am happy. But let's see what the world has in store. Who needs to watch movies when you can watch the world?!

P.S. Another thing that Al Qaeda will do is ignore the Iraqi data point because they honestly believe that the 300+ political parties are all a CIA sham. Whereas I consider it to be an excellent data point because I don't buy into all the conspiracy theories.




Iraqi Data Point

Well this is fantastic news. The US will be keeping its signed commitment to withdraw ALL forces by the end of the year. This will be hugely beneficial in political debates. Morons like Foddy who said that the US would be staying in Iraq for the next 50 years to control oil have their worldview collapsed. Or it would be collapsed if they weren't such morons that they replace one pathetic worldview with another equally pathetic one to cover up their gross failure to be able to accurately predict events according to their old one. That's actually an important point - we are genetically attuned to gaining pleasure from predicting the future - a great survival characteristic. Just like listening to music.

Anyway, the War on Terror is an ideological war, so we need to get back to winning that, and for that, we need the US troops out of Iraq. So that's really fantastic news. Of course, there is a danger that Iraq will have a military coup, and that the US will stand idly by (in Kuwait) instead of intervening, but that's OK. Because that gives us another valuable data point in understanding the world. It would be nice to know if Arab Muslim new democracies naturally fall back to military dictatorships. The only way we can find this out is by getting the troops out and seeing what happens. I don't know what happens. My guess is that that won't happen, because the institutions are in place to prevent that. But the world has seen plenty of military coups, so I could well be wrong. Either way, it is important to know what to expect. We know what we expect to see from an Arab Muslim democracy. Iraq gave us that data point already, thanks to the wonderful 70% turnout to a secret ballot. And yes, it was worth $1 trillion and 100,000+ lives to get that data. That data allows us to install Arab Muslim democracies at will. We know it is technically possible. Even if it turns out that you DO need to keep 5,000 troops in the country for 100 years to put down military coups.

I see multiple sweeps of the world taking place. First of all we sweep the world installing democracies everywhere. Then we sweep the world converting the non-liberal-democracies into liberal democracies assuming that is technically possible. Well before all that happens we need a sweep of the world to "gather data". So Iraq was involved in that sweep, and we've got most of the data we can get already. There's still more data to be obtained from Iraq, e.g. "do Arab Muslim democracies coalesce into a 2-party system split along economic lines?".

Anyway, I look forward to the political debates I will be able to have on Jan 1, 2012. Not sure how many days I will be able to debate for before a military coup harms my argument, but I will savour the window of opportunity. And hopefully Tunisia and Libya provide fallbacks for any military coup anyway. It's a combination of all these things that provides a strategy for world liberation. That's what the ultimate goal is - create the best possible blueprint for world liberation and then execute it in a blitzkrieg.




Sorry Syrian Allies

In the Anonymous chat room I came across a Syrian (Sunni Arab in Damascus) and asked him for a percentage breakdown.

He reckoned 1-10% of Syrians supported an internationally-supported liberation, 10-20% supported the current regime, and 75-90% supported self-liberation.

My true ideological allies are the ones who have the same ideology as me. And if I was living under a dictatorship I would want the whole world to come to my aid (and thus I try to return the favour when I'm not under a dictatorship).

However, figures like that are not healthy for a liberation. Iraq was bad enough - only 50% supported that. In Afghanistan we had healthier figures (85%), and Libya was probably the same (looking forward to seeing opinion polls from there).

Given that only democracy is on the cards (not cultural change to replace the nationalism with ideological affinity), I'd have to say that my allies are outvoted and will just have to live with whatever happens. If the self-liberation doesn't occur (my money is on the regime's automatic weapons), we'll have to come back another day (after Burma, or whoever has a majority in favour, have been liberated).

One point my Syrian contact made is that Syria would be indebted to Australia if Australia liberated Syria, and he wants to avoid such a debt. That is understandable so I think we need to make it clear that liberations are obligation-free. First it's not just one country that does the liberation, so it's not clear who the debt would be to. A transnational entity like NATO is even more obscure. First not all NATO members (ie Germany) even agreed that the action was appropriate. Secondly, Libya can potentially join NATO itself. Regardless, I think any outstanding moral debt should be of the form "it would be nice, but not necessary, if post-liberation your country helped - or even better - led - the next liberation". And come to think of it, the Americans are the ones who normally do the liberations these days, and I didn't notice them feeling indebted to the French for liberating them. So it's probably fair to say that no debt is expected.

Another point is that we should have a "war chest". All foreign aid should be stopped and we focus on making sure we have enough money available to pay for the once-off cost of liberation.

One more thing - the percentages provided may not be totally accurate - they're only estimates and the Syrian dictator is responsible for the fact that accurate numbers can't be obtained. However, the numbers are believable and consistent with other reports/dialogue/understanding I have of Syrians. It is going to be very tough finding the country most deserving of liberation, which is why I would suggest concentrating on countries that are enemies of the free world (like Iran with its nukes), so that we at least get ourselves into a stronger position for future liberations if nothing else. It's just that I had hoped to take advantage of the fact that Syria already had a revolution in progress - and leverage off that.


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