Tunisian Knife Edge

In a case of very strange bedfellows, both Al Qaeda and myself supported the Arab Spring. The Al Qaeda types have some strange line that Israel or the Americans were propping up the Arab dictators in order to protect Israel and now the people are free so they can get an Islamic state and an end to the horrible zionist regimes.

Whereas I am expecting the Tunisians and Libyans to vote for a moderate government much like Iraq has. Probably even better than Iraq. I think it's more likely that they will join NATO than be part of some sort of Islamic Caliphate.

So again we have a clash of paradigms. Both Al Qaeda and myself are using our respective paradigms to predict the future. If and when Al Qaeda's prediction fails to eventuate, they'll likely add some more conspiracy into the mix, and say that the zionists managed to rig the Tunisian elections after all. If my prediction fails to eventuate, I'll simply say that I gave the Tunisian people too much credit, and pencil them in below Iraq instead of above Iraq. And after all - one of the reasons Iraq was the ideal choice to start with was the fact that they were supposedly the least radical of the lot. Part of the data-gathering phase in world liberation is to be able to accurately categorize these countries so that we know where and when to apply force (or whatever) so that we can direct events to where we would like them to go. Actually this is something I do as an individual too. Mainly I did it with computer software, but I also did it with the ideological war too - inserting my logic skills to win the political debate. And similar to how the US funded capitalist insurgents during the Cold War, I funded things like the Iraqi bloggers.

Anyway, my current understanding is that the opinion polls only show the Islamists getting 20% of the vote, so assuming that opinion polls in Tunisia are an accurate reflection of the secret ballot, there shouldn't be a problem. And even if they get more than 20%, my understanding is that they are moderate anyway. So at this stage things look like they are going my way and I am happy. But let's see what the world has in store. Who needs to watch movies when you can watch the world?!

P.S. Another thing that Al Qaeda will do is ignore the Iraqi data point because they honestly believe that the 300+ political parties are all a CIA sham. Whereas I consider it to be an excellent data point because I don't buy into all the conspiracy theories.

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