2014-06-12
Mosul Madness
The nutcase Islamic militants in Iraq have taken over Mosul. Thanks to the myths of Vietnam (US action supposedly failing when it didn't), Afghanistan (Russian action supposedly failing when it didn't) and the US "revolution" (aka French military victory), the dumbass insurgents think they can take on the Iraqi security forces. The Iraqi security forces outnumber the insurgents by about 1000 to 1, along with having complete air supremacy and almost all the heavy weaponry.
The Iraqi security forces are spread thin over the entirety of Iraq, which allowed the militants to bunch up and take on the security forces in Mosul. But that can only be a temporary gain. The Iraqi security forces also have the ability to bunch up in their thousands and take on the nutcases who are also spread more thinly as they attempt to hold on to territory.
Basically there is an amusing turkey-shoot about to happen as the science of warfare takes on the "glorious" insurgents.
P.S. This is similar to the Tet Offensive where the insurgents revealed who they are and got decimated. Mosul should be played very carefully so that we send as many insurgents through the meat grinder (ie the Iraqi security forces) as possible. The Iraqi military should advance and retreat so that the insurgents think that they are a match for the security forces and are driving them back (a bit like a carrot in front of a donkey - just a little bit more effort and we'll win). And the insurgents will hopefully call for reinforcements and the insurgents are never aware that they are being sucker-punched.
P.P.S. The problem that the Iraqi security forces had was that a single police station is no match for a force of hundreds of enemies. This is what happens when you try to control territory - you need to spread your forces thin. But an attacking force that is not trying to control territory is able to concentrate. The beauty of a democracy is that you don't need to control people. You can let civilians do whatever they want. People like the Taliban have a remit to keep the population under control. The Northern Alliance/USA only had a remit to take on the oppressors, not control the people. The insurgents are trying to control territory now, against a hostile population. The Iraqi security forces just need to concentrate power and take the insurgents on in any territory they are attempting to control.
P.P.P.S. What would be good from this is if ISIS gets weaponry from the captured Iraqi bases and takes them to Syria. Also it is good that the Kurds are taking Kirkuk. They should use this opportunity to spread their wings and take whatever territory they want.
P.P.P.P.S. There is a quote - "fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man". What we have in all countries is police stations and army bases which are basically fixed fortifications. Basically the entire country is just a "front". These weak fortifications are not designed to cope with an attack by hundreds of militants. The militants have basically used maneuver warfare to score their victories. They can easily be defeated by a maneuver warfare response from Baghdad. Basically a column of tanks could leave Baghdad and destroy ISIS.
P.P.P.P.P.S. Now that the insurgents are controlling territory, what I would suggest is that the Iraqi military surround some of that territory, and then take out some militants, creating a vacuum. And instead of advancing into that vacuum, they should let the insurgents fill that vacuum. Hopefully their ideological allies will continue to pour into this territory that they believe they have gained, not realizing it is basically an ambush.
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The Iraqi security forces are spread thin over the entirety of Iraq, which allowed the militants to bunch up and take on the security forces in Mosul. But that can only be a temporary gain. The Iraqi security forces also have the ability to bunch up in their thousands and take on the nutcases who are also spread more thinly as they attempt to hold on to territory.
Basically there is an amusing turkey-shoot about to happen as the science of warfare takes on the "glorious" insurgents.
P.S. This is similar to the Tet Offensive where the insurgents revealed who they are and got decimated. Mosul should be played very carefully so that we send as many insurgents through the meat grinder (ie the Iraqi security forces) as possible. The Iraqi military should advance and retreat so that the insurgents think that they are a match for the security forces and are driving them back (a bit like a carrot in front of a donkey - just a little bit more effort and we'll win). And the insurgents will hopefully call for reinforcements and the insurgents are never aware that they are being sucker-punched.
P.P.S. The problem that the Iraqi security forces had was that a single police station is no match for a force of hundreds of enemies. This is what happens when you try to control territory - you need to spread your forces thin. But an attacking force that is not trying to control territory is able to concentrate. The beauty of a democracy is that you don't need to control people. You can let civilians do whatever they want. People like the Taliban have a remit to keep the population under control. The Northern Alliance/USA only had a remit to take on the oppressors, not control the people. The insurgents are trying to control territory now, against a hostile population. The Iraqi security forces just need to concentrate power and take the insurgents on in any territory they are attempting to control.
P.P.P.S. What would be good from this is if ISIS gets weaponry from the captured Iraqi bases and takes them to Syria. Also it is good that the Kurds are taking Kirkuk. They should use this opportunity to spread their wings and take whatever territory they want.
P.P.P.P.S. There is a quote - "fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man". What we have in all countries is police stations and army bases which are basically fixed fortifications. Basically the entire country is just a "front". These weak fortifications are not designed to cope with an attack by hundreds of militants. The militants have basically used maneuver warfare to score their victories. They can easily be defeated by a maneuver warfare response from Baghdad. Basically a column of tanks could leave Baghdad and destroy ISIS.
P.P.P.P.P.S. Now that the insurgents are controlling territory, what I would suggest is that the Iraqi military surround some of that territory, and then take out some militants, creating a vacuum. And instead of advancing into that vacuum, they should let the insurgents fill that vacuum. Hopefully their ideological allies will continue to pour into this territory that they believe they have gained, not realizing it is basically an ambush.
# posted by Paul Edwards @ 14:45 
