2012-04-05
Russian Nail on the Head
Syria is a straightforward military calculus. War is a science.
As the Russian foreign minister has said:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Syria's opposition will never defeat the country's armed forces even if it is "armed to the teeth".
Add in air power from almost any Western country and the military equation dramatically changes. It's like playing chess and having a queen and pawns against a knight and a bishop. The battle can be won, even if it is difficult with just one major piece. It's not exactly the same as Libya. For whatever reason, in Libya the opposition forces didn't seem to have much in the way of trained military defectors. Syria has that.
It's a battle waiting to happen.
And there's been a development. It looks like diplomacy may allow the Pakistani route to Afghanistan to be reopened, which means that Russia can't threaten mayhem in Afghanistan if Syria is militarily assisted to freedom. I think NATO should set up a buffer zone of say 10km from the Pakistan border where air strikes are not allowed. If security is required in that 10km region they will have to use Afghan ground forces instead. Afghan ground forces should have superior equipment to anything the Taliban can muster. Basically NATO can't even be trusted to hit the right country. I can remember watching US warplanes taking potshots at reporters in Albania during the Kosovo conflict too. They really are hopeless. But they're also the key to winning wars (to allow the tanks freedom of action). But that has already been achieved. The friendly Afghan forces have overwhelming firepower compared to their Taliban enemy, so it should be a slam dunk even if aircraft are completely withdrawn. Once again it's just a matter of fighting with a couple of rooks versus the enemy's pawns. You don't need a queen to win the war, even though it's nice to have.
So if the bugalugs play nice with Pakistan, hopefully Pakistan will be forgiving and we can get the Russian monkey off Syria's back.
We really need to do something about getting Russia over to our side too. It's a crying shame that a Western democracy exists that is hostile to the expansion of democracy. I've been trying to nut that problem out ever since 1991. The Russian mindset is a tough nut to crack.
|
As the Russian foreign minister has said:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Syria's opposition will never defeat the country's armed forces even if it is "armed to the teeth".
Add in air power from almost any Western country and the military equation dramatically changes. It's like playing chess and having a queen and pawns against a knight and a bishop. The battle can be won, even if it is difficult with just one major piece. It's not exactly the same as Libya. For whatever reason, in Libya the opposition forces didn't seem to have much in the way of trained military defectors. Syria has that.
It's a battle waiting to happen.
And there's been a development. It looks like diplomacy may allow the Pakistani route to Afghanistan to be reopened, which means that Russia can't threaten mayhem in Afghanistan if Syria is militarily assisted to freedom. I think NATO should set up a buffer zone of say 10km from the Pakistan border where air strikes are not allowed. If security is required in that 10km region they will have to use Afghan ground forces instead. Afghan ground forces should have superior equipment to anything the Taliban can muster. Basically NATO can't even be trusted to hit the right country. I can remember watching US warplanes taking potshots at reporters in Albania during the Kosovo conflict too. They really are hopeless. But they're also the key to winning wars (to allow the tanks freedom of action). But that has already been achieved. The friendly Afghan forces have overwhelming firepower compared to their Taliban enemy, so it should be a slam dunk even if aircraft are completely withdrawn. Once again it's just a matter of fighting with a couple of rooks versus the enemy's pawns. You don't need a queen to win the war, even though it's nice to have.
So if the bugalugs play nice with Pakistan, hopefully Pakistan will be forgiving and we can get the Russian monkey off Syria's back.
We really need to do something about getting Russia over to our side too. It's a crying shame that a Western democracy exists that is hostile to the expansion of democracy. I've been trying to nut that problem out ever since 1991. The Russian mindset is a tough nut to crack.
# posted by Paul Edwards @ 19:51 
