2007-03-02
Best Case Scenario
There was a post here about the US assuming the best case scenario in the Iraq war, but instead we got the worst case scenario. It inspired some great comments. Let's go through them:
"Actually the worst case scenario was hundreds of oil wells being lit on fire, Israel being pounded by long range missiles, and Baghdad being turned into some sort of Stalingrad like seige with millions of civilians being killed in a major humanitarian catastrophe."
Which is exactly right. Bush didn't assume the worst case scenario. He had no idea what to expect. We could have found 95% of Iraqis supported Saddam (after all, he was getting 100% of the vote), or we could have found 95% of the Iraqis supported being liberated. The only sensible plan was to REACT to whatever on earth was found in Iraq, rather than planning for 1000 different possibilities.
It went pretty damn well. All the things that needed to happen, did happen. A high voter turnout, a government that is not an enemy, brand new Iraqi security forces with both popular approval and plenty of recruits. And all done with an incredibly low loss of US troops. And the final milestone of Iraqis in charge of all of Iraq is due in Nov 2007. Not bad. Not bad at all. The high murder rate is militarily irrelevant and never part of the plan.
Things would have been bad if the turnout at the elections was 5%, if no-one turned up to join the new security forces, if Sistani had declared a jihad, if the Iraqis had voted for anti-American Islamic terrorists. None of this happened.
"Hate to sound like a heartless monster but::
If the Iraq phase in you guys eyes is the worst case senerio we might aswell hang it up right now we are FUBAR. The Iraq phase has been a unbelievable success historically speaking. You cannot set never acheived impossible to reach bars then cry becuase we can't reach those goals.
Examples:
Casualties-4yrs of Invading two Nations and occupying over 50million very hostile peoples in two nations for nearly 4yrs running with only about 3k casualties is not a disaster that is amazing. We lost 3X this number just crossing the river to get to Cassino Monastary in Italy WW2 were we lost a exponentially more men.
Strain on Economy- You got to be kidding me. The military is pulling what 4% GDP including the Supplementals and in the 80's the mil was pulling 5.5-6% don't even look at other war time strains you may sh*t yourself on site.
Strain on Civilian Pop- NO DRAFT, NO WAR TIME TAXES, NO RATIONING, NO NOTHING, if it wasn't for the ME doom gloom reporting every time a Iraqi kills another Iraqi in protest to the Infedels US the gen pop would not even know that we were at war.
Strain on Mill equipment- what 20+ year old equipment that was getting ready to be replaced in our FCS upgrade anyway getting to go out with a bang and most likely when we leave be sold (donated)(eternally loaned) to the Iraqi's?
The Carnage- This is the best. Is it not the most saddest thing about this whole afair that we are actually feeling like we are losing this war (thanks to our don't question there patriotism ME,LLL, Dums) becuase the enemy is killing to many of his own people? What kind of F*cking stardegy is that and why is that not anything short what it actually is (absolute 100% proof positive of how bad we are beating these brave Jihadi's that they cannot dare face US even in thier own home instead they go blow up a handfull of thier OWN people). On top of that is this insanity by our enemy not 100% evidence of why we must fight them over there? If they kill there own to protest US how will they treat our women and children what if they get some real mass killers?
It may sound evil but it was the Arab culture that bread these sick killers in the first place and the fact that they are now reaping what they sowed really doesn't gather much sympathy on my part. Mine/yours grandfathers didn't have much sympathy for the German people that allowed the sick Nazi ways to drag them into the depths of hell.
Bottom line if this Iraq phase is the limit of our ability to endure war we are f*cked. WW2, WW1 level fighting is something that we could not even imagine today, a war with China, N Korea, Russia or even Iran (they have a boat load of terrorist aka Muslim cruise missiles.) all of these senerios will be wars that will show just how minor the Iraq Phase has been in Reality."
Well said! It is amazing how people can look at a complete and utter success and call it a failure. History is going to record this as one of the most amazing campaigns in military history. It's a new style of warfare - a war of liberation instead of conquest.
Now they have been empowered to do something about their sick culture. It will help them and it will help the free world.
Although I disagree with the bit about there being 50 million very hostile people. The US has been very successful at avoiding a war with the locals. It has achieved this by not forcing one damn thing on the locals. Nothing. Not a sausage. Everything you see in Afghanistan and Iraq was totally chosen by locals. There's no reason for them to be hostile towards the US, which is simply helping enforce laws that they created themselves. Brilliant strategy. Completely and utterly brilliant. If there is a need to come back at a later date and force something down their throat, so be it. Until then it is best to just observe what they do with their newfound democracy and freedom of speech.
"First, Our Leaders didn't grasp that it has taken us 2400 years, from Aristotle to the present day, to get where we are, while Islam has had only the briefest of contacts with the Greek philosophers. Islam destroyed the Mu'tazilites and Ibn Rushd (their only chance at escaping their irrational tribal heritage); they had no Renaissance, no Enlightenment, no Industrial Revolution, and yet Our Leaders somehow believed that if we offered them an Enlightenment civilization on a silver platter, the Muslims would swoom with gratitude, and there would be Peace in Our Time.
Second, Our Leaders acted as though they didn't have a clue about the role of close consanguinous marriage in Islamic culture that makes abandoning the tribal mentality all but impossible - the ol' Hatfield and McCoy thing. Thanks to Muhammed, the tribes have gotten bigger - the Shia, Sunni, and The Others (the latter would be us, the infidels).
Third, Our Leaders have no concept of what constitutes "honor," "strength" and "self-esteem" among the Muslims, so Our Leaders fought using the Just War Theory, foolishly figuring that if we used that ethic, then the Muslims would, too.
Fourth, Our Leaders neglect the problems created with the establishment of the government school system, which permitted the postmodernists to infiltrate it and teach our kids their own PC crap, instead of the values of the Enlightenment, right from the beginning.
"Hey," around half our population wonders, "since all (values, opinions, philosophies, viewpoints) are equally valid, what difference does it make what anyone believes or who's in charge?"
The Muslims "get it," though, right from the moment Papa Muslim whispers the shahada into the ear of his newborn. By the time they are out of high school, their minds have been sucked dry - and ours aren't far behind.
Well, I sure hope Our Leaders have learned enough now that Iran is looming on the horizon. If we get into again, we'd better do it right."
I emailed the author of this comment, to get an explanation for all this. And as a result, I now have a treasure trove of information, which I will post shortly.
|
"Actually the worst case scenario was hundreds of oil wells being lit on fire, Israel being pounded by long range missiles, and Baghdad being turned into some sort of Stalingrad like seige with millions of civilians being killed in a major humanitarian catastrophe."
Which is exactly right. Bush didn't assume the worst case scenario. He had no idea what to expect. We could have found 95% of Iraqis supported Saddam (after all, he was getting 100% of the vote), or we could have found 95% of the Iraqis supported being liberated. The only sensible plan was to REACT to whatever on earth was found in Iraq, rather than planning for 1000 different possibilities.
It went pretty damn well. All the things that needed to happen, did happen. A high voter turnout, a government that is not an enemy, brand new Iraqi security forces with both popular approval and plenty of recruits. And all done with an incredibly low loss of US troops. And the final milestone of Iraqis in charge of all of Iraq is due in Nov 2007. Not bad. Not bad at all. The high murder rate is militarily irrelevant and never part of the plan.
Things would have been bad if the turnout at the elections was 5%, if no-one turned up to join the new security forces, if Sistani had declared a jihad, if the Iraqis had voted for anti-American Islamic terrorists. None of this happened.
"Hate to sound like a heartless monster but::
If the Iraq phase in you guys eyes is the worst case senerio we might aswell hang it up right now we are FUBAR. The Iraq phase has been a unbelievable success historically speaking. You cannot set never acheived impossible to reach bars then cry becuase we can't reach those goals.
Examples:
Casualties-4yrs of Invading two Nations and occupying over 50million very hostile peoples in two nations for nearly 4yrs running with only about 3k casualties is not a disaster that is amazing. We lost 3X this number just crossing the river to get to Cassino Monastary in Italy WW2 were we lost a exponentially more men.
Strain on Economy- You got to be kidding me. The military is pulling what 4% GDP including the Supplementals and in the 80's the mil was pulling 5.5-6% don't even look at other war time strains you may sh*t yourself on site.
Strain on Civilian Pop- NO DRAFT, NO WAR TIME TAXES, NO RATIONING, NO NOTHING, if it wasn't for the ME doom gloom reporting every time a Iraqi kills another Iraqi in protest to the Infedels US the gen pop would not even know that we were at war.
Strain on Mill equipment- what 20+ year old equipment that was getting ready to be replaced in our FCS upgrade anyway getting to go out with a bang and most likely when we leave be sold (donated)(eternally loaned) to the Iraqi's?
The Carnage- This is the best. Is it not the most saddest thing about this whole afair that we are actually feeling like we are losing this war (thanks to our don't question there patriotism ME,LLL, Dums) becuase the enemy is killing to many of his own people? What kind of F*cking stardegy is that and why is that not anything short what it actually is (absolute 100% proof positive of how bad we are beating these brave Jihadi's that they cannot dare face US even in thier own home instead they go blow up a handfull of thier OWN people). On top of that is this insanity by our enemy not 100% evidence of why we must fight them over there? If they kill there own to protest US how will they treat our women and children what if they get some real mass killers?
It may sound evil but it was the Arab culture that bread these sick killers in the first place and the fact that they are now reaping what they sowed really doesn't gather much sympathy on my part. Mine/yours grandfathers didn't have much sympathy for the German people that allowed the sick Nazi ways to drag them into the depths of hell.
Bottom line if this Iraq phase is the limit of our ability to endure war we are f*cked. WW2, WW1 level fighting is something that we could not even imagine today, a war with China, N Korea, Russia or even Iran (they have a boat load of terrorist aka Muslim cruise missiles.) all of these senerios will be wars that will show just how minor the Iraq Phase has been in Reality."
Well said! It is amazing how people can look at a complete and utter success and call it a failure. History is going to record this as one of the most amazing campaigns in military history. It's a new style of warfare - a war of liberation instead of conquest.
Now they have been empowered to do something about their sick culture. It will help them and it will help the free world.
Although I disagree with the bit about there being 50 million very hostile people. The US has been very successful at avoiding a war with the locals. It has achieved this by not forcing one damn thing on the locals. Nothing. Not a sausage. Everything you see in Afghanistan and Iraq was totally chosen by locals. There's no reason for them to be hostile towards the US, which is simply helping enforce laws that they created themselves. Brilliant strategy. Completely and utterly brilliant. If there is a need to come back at a later date and force something down their throat, so be it. Until then it is best to just observe what they do with their newfound democracy and freedom of speech.
"First, Our Leaders didn't grasp that it has taken us 2400 years, from Aristotle to the present day, to get where we are, while Islam has had only the briefest of contacts with the Greek philosophers. Islam destroyed the Mu'tazilites and Ibn Rushd (their only chance at escaping their irrational tribal heritage); they had no Renaissance, no Enlightenment, no Industrial Revolution, and yet Our Leaders somehow believed that if we offered them an Enlightenment civilization on a silver platter, the Muslims would swoom with gratitude, and there would be Peace in Our Time.
Second, Our Leaders acted as though they didn't have a clue about the role of close consanguinous marriage in Islamic culture that makes abandoning the tribal mentality all but impossible - the ol' Hatfield and McCoy thing. Thanks to Muhammed, the tribes have gotten bigger - the Shia, Sunni, and The Others (the latter would be us, the infidels).
Third, Our Leaders have no concept of what constitutes "honor," "strength" and "self-esteem" among the Muslims, so Our Leaders fought using the Just War Theory, foolishly figuring that if we used that ethic, then the Muslims would, too.
Fourth, Our Leaders neglect the problems created with the establishment of the government school system, which permitted the postmodernists to infiltrate it and teach our kids their own PC crap, instead of the values of the Enlightenment, right from the beginning.
"Hey," around half our population wonders, "since all (values, opinions, philosophies, viewpoints) are equally valid, what difference does it make what anyone believes or who's in charge?"
The Muslims "get it," though, right from the moment Papa Muslim whispers the shahada into the ear of his newborn. By the time they are out of high school, their minds have been sucked dry - and ours aren't far behind.
Well, I sure hope Our Leaders have learned enough now that Iran is looming on the horizon. If we get into again, we'd better do it right."
I emailed the author of this comment, to get an explanation for all this. And as a result, I now have a treasure trove of information, which I will post shortly.
# posted by Paul Edwards @ 02:38 
