My Concern

I have stopped my day job and am instead totally committed to seeing the world through the final stages of freedom. It is imperative that we get a good news story from Iran. A 3 week war, install some reformers, then leave. Iran will be the inspiration for ending tyranny in other places such as Burma. The timing is critical. Iraq is taking far longer than expected. There's only 2.5 years left of Bush's presidency. Ideally Iraq will be finished before then and Bush will give the order to liberate Iran. But public opinion may be queasy on the issue and Bush may be persuaded not to liberate Iran. It is thus critical to get the public behind the liberation of Iraq. To explain to them that ending a holocaust is a noble achievement and to ignore the teething pains of Iraq's new democracy.

I'm optimistic that Iraq's new government will be able to defeat the insurgency within a year. But my predictions have been wrong before. I correctly predicted that the Shia and Kurds would be happy to be liberated and thus they would sign up for the new security forces and thus it was impossible for Iraq to fail. This prediction turned out to be correct. There are long queues to join the Iraqi security forces. It's really great. But I expected the Sunnis to realise they were defeated and not throw away their lives trying to stop the new Shia-led government. They have been throwing away their lives for far longer than I would have thought possible.

There are some reasons for new optimism. The Iraqis now have a democratically-elected permanent government. This body will now be able to decide on possible amnesty for the Sunni. This body can also request a NATO mission in Iraq, and Iraq will be able to join NATO's Partnership for Peace. I believe these things could happen on a timeframe that will give enough time for Bush to liberate Iran. It's exciting days. Far more exciting than watching men kicking around a ball.

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