One Percent Doctrine

I read an article mentioning a "one percent doctrine". Basically, if there is a one percent chance that Pakistan is giving nuclear secrets to Al Qaeda, we should act on the danger as if we were in imminent danger, rather than suffer the effects of the 1% actually coming true. I agree with this. This is a mathematically correct thing to do. P(x) * E(x). ie the probability of x happening times the effect of x happening. The equation shows that denuking Pakistan is far higher priority than checking Arab Muslims at airports. Yet we are outwardly only working on the latter problem.

I say "outwardly" because I don't know if the US plans to denuke Pakistan or not. If I were in charge of the US, I wouldn't be opening a warfront with Pakistan at this moment in history either. I'd be doing exactly what the US government is already doing, which is taking down the hostile governments first, and doing scientific research on human behaviour at the same time. And also military doctrine experiments too. The 3.5-week Iraq war with 100 allied casualties shattered previous military thinking (as I predicted it would). Actually my prediction was not quite accurate, as I was expecting mass defection and a victory in 3 days (how long it took tanks to reach Baghdad). I didn't expect anyone to be dumb enough to fight a losing battle so that they could remain oppressed. But that was one of the benefits of liberating Iraq - finding out just how dumb these people are (from a western point of view).

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