Major Milestone

As of 2015-01-01 we have reached a very important milestone. We have returned to the situation as it was on 2001-09-10. Namely, there are not a large number of US troops involved in overseas wars, and especially not being killed. Having troops in places like Kosovo does not rub a raw nerve like it does when thousands are being killed in e.g. Iraq.

It was necessary to have large numbers of troops engaged in messy nation-building over the last 13 years, but that era has now passed. We have collected the required data, and proven the technology. In the future, wars can be limited to just providing air power to local forces. Air power doesn't rub a raw nerve in America. We now fortunately have plenty of evidence that this model works. On 2001-09-11 we did not have sufficient evidence and people were insisting that Afghanistan couldn't be won from the air. For whatever reason, people wouldn't accept Kosovo as proof. Regardless, the stunning Northern Alliance victory showed that air power is basically all we need to provide to assist locals to victory. We got more evidence of that in Libya. And just today we see that it worked in Kobane.

This really is a great burden lifted from the forces of the free world. No more nation-building. Just air power added to friendly locals. All the troops have been freed up now. In previous years there were questions about the US military failing to meet its recruiting targets (and even the possibility of reintroducing conscription). Such questions are now moot. We no longer need to deploy lots of troops to do nation-building. America's enemies have failed. We are now past the point of no-return. Every future war only requires the US to do the initial battlefield defeat (which in Iraq took 3.5 weeks). Locals can take it from there (with continued US air support to our favored locals, to avoid a power vacuum like in Libya). Or alternatively, US ground troops are not even required at all - we can instead just provide air support to locals, as is likely to be done in Syria (and was already done in Libya).

The opportunity to harm America while America's military was elsewhere engaged passed on 2015-01-01. A wonderful, wonderful day.

Note that we should remain mindful of the troops that remain in Afghanistan. It is of absolute importance that we do not outstay our welcome in Afghanistan and accidentally go to war with the Afghan people. Once again, it is not really necessary for American troops to remain in Afghanistan. Afghan troops could go to somewhere like Tajikistan to be trained by the US. No need to do it in Afghanistan. But sure, Afghanistan is the most convenient place, so there's no problem staying there if we are very sure that the Afghans don't mind. As far as I can tell from Afghan opinion polls and Afghan election results and Afghan politicians, the Afghans are overwhelmingly supportive of the US presence. And the US presence has the side-effect of preventing any military coup against Afghanistan's democracy. So we shouldn't pull the (small number of) coalition forces out of Afghanistan just because we are scared of overstaying our welcome. If we have natural friends/allies in Afghanistan, then that's fine. We're happy to assist our friends and allies, wherever we find them.

Anyway, bottom line is that the world is in a new state now. All western forces have been freed up, ready for the next big battle. Hopefully America will get over its war-weariness after a little while (e.g. in 2 years from now when Obama is out of power) and we can send the troops to do the battlefield defeat of the Iranian dictator's forces. In and out in 3.5 weeks flat (or similar - that was the figure from Iraq). Or if not Iran, then maybe North Korea. Anyone drawing attention to themselves, basically.

Note one more thing. If it is possible to get local ground forces to fight their dictator as was done in Libya, it is also possible to simply do the battlefield-defeat for locals, and then hand it over to locals. That is a lot quicker and nicer than expecting locals to do the battlefield-defeat themselves, with just US air power added, no US ground troops. ie what I am saying is that it would be best if US ground troops were used to defeat North Korea instead of mucking around trying to find locals to support. The only objection I have to this use of US ground troops is that it may put some local noses out of joint (while 50% of Iraqis supported being liberated, there were another 50% who felt "humiliated" for whatever strange cultural reason). So I think it was right to stay in the air in Libya so that the locals can (sort of) rightfully say that they did the job themselves, and weren't humiliated by external forces. I don't think we have that problem with the Koreans. Regardless, since 2015-01-01 we have all the options in the world we need, and just need to choose one. We'll win regardless, and with ease.

Another way of saying all this is "now we are free".


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